|Issue number 281 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post compares points achieved by teams from 31 European leagues with points expected according to a statistical model taking into account ball possession, as well as the number and distance of both shots taken and conceded as per InStat data.
The analysis highlights the great efficiency of clubs such as Benfica (+0.71 points per match), Liverpool (+0.66), Juventus (+0.64), Schalke 04 (+0.57) and Valencia (+0.55).
The pitch production of Benfica should have allowed them to achieve 2.11 points per match compared to 2.82 in reality.
The greatest positive gap out of the 496 clubs from the 31 leagues surveyed was recorded for Astra Giurgiu (+0.85). The Romanian side obtained almost two points per match despite having conceded more shots than those taken and having had only about 45% of ball possession.
The same holds true for Turkish league leader Sivaspor (+0.73).
The greatest negative gap overall was registered for Heart of Midlothian: 0.62 points achieved compared to 1.39 expected (-0.77).
Champions League round of 16 participants Atalanta (-0.71) and Napoli (-0.61) were also particularly inefficient with respect to their pitch production.
Manchester City (-0.36) and Chelsea (-0.33) are at the bottom of the Premier League efficiency rankings.
About the CIES Football Observatory
The CIES Football Observatory is a research group within the International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES). Created in 2005 by Dr. Raffaele Poli and Dr. Loïc Ravenel, the CIES Football Observatory currently comprises a staff of four full-time permanent researchers who specialise in the statistical analysis of football. Click here for more information.
About the CIES
The International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES) is an independent study centre located in Neuchâtel, Switzerland. It was created in 1995 as a joint venture between the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), the University of Neuchâtel, the City and State of Neuchatel. Click here for more information. Click here for more information.
CIES – Centre International d’Étude du Sport