he coronavirus pandemic is heavily impacting the football industry.
Issue number 289 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post presents the gaps in the players’ estimated transfer value in the event that no matches will be played and no contract will be extended until the end of June.
As such, the total player transfer value at big-5 league level would decrease by 28%: from €32.7 to €23.4 billion.
The extent of the decrease varies according to several factors such as the players’ age, contract duration, career path and recent performance.
The greatest loss in relative terms concerns ageing footballers with short-term contracts who played fewer matches during current season than in the previous one.
As matter of example, Paul Pogba’s estimated transfer value would almost halve from €65M to €35M.
The greatest potential percentage loss per club was measured for Olympique de Marseille: -38%.
Conversely, the lowest one was recorded for another French Ligue 1 team: Stade Brestois (-16%).
The values presented have been calculated on the basis of the exclusive CIES Football algorithm.
The transfer value ranges for big-5 league footballers before the league shutdown are available here.
About the CIES Football Observatory
The CIES Football Observatory is a research group within the International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES). Created in 2005 by Dr. Raffaele Poli and Dr. Loïc Ravenel, the CIES Football Observatory currently comprises a staff of four full-time permanent researchers who specialise in the statistical analysis of football. Click here for more information.
About the CIES
The International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES) is an independent study centre located in Neuchâtel, Switzerland. It was created in 1995 as a joint venture between the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), the University of Neuchâtel, the City and State of Neuchatel. Click here for more information. Click here for more information.
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